Friday, September 03, 2010

50 Life Secrets and Tips


50 Life Secrets and Tips

1. Memorize something everyday. Not only will this leave your brain sharp and your memory functioning, you will also have a huge library of quotes to bust out at any moment. Poetry, sayings and philosophies are your best options.
2. Constantly try to reduce your attachment to possessions. Those who are heavy set with material desires will have a lot of trouble when their things are taken away from them or lost. Possessions do end up owning you, not the other way around. Become a person of minimal needs and you will be much more content.
3. Develop an endless curiosity about this world. Become an explorer and view the world as your jungle. Stop and observe all of the little things as completely unique events. Try new things. Get out of your comfort zone and try to experience as many different environments and sensations as possible. This world has so much to offer, so why not take advantage of it?
4. Remember people’s names so that they feel appreciated and for your own future benefit when you want something from that person. To do this, say their name back to them when they introduce themselves. Then repeat the name in your head a number of times until you are sure you have it. Continue to use their name in conversation as much as possible to remove any chance of forgetting it. If you’re still having trouble, make up a rhyme about their name: “Dan the Man” or “Natalie flatters me.”
5. Get fit! It’s ridiculous to think that we have one body, one sole means of functioning, and people are too lazy to take care of themselves. Fit bodies lead to better health, confidence and more success with the opposite sex. I’d say those are 3 very good reasons to get in shape.
6. Learn to focus only on the present. The past is unchangeable so it is futile to reflect on it unless you are making sure you do not repeat past mistakes. The future is but a result of your actions today. So learn from the past to do better in the present so that you can succeed in the future.
7. Even more specifically, live in THIS moment. Even 10 minutes ago is the past. If you live purely in this moment you will always be happy because there is nothing wrong in this split-second.
8. Smile more often. Whenever you get a grin on your face, your brain is releasing serotonin, the happy hormone. Smiling is the natural way to force yourself to be happy. Many people even smile for five minutes straight in the morning to get themselves in a great mood for the day. It is a very powerful tool that is utilized less and less as we grow older and need happiness more than ever. Just remember that while happiness leads to smiles, smiles also lead to happiness.
9. Drink water. Hydration is tremendously important for overall health. Soda has absolutely ZERO nutritional content; it’s like pouring a punch of sugar and syrup into your cup. Instead, fill it with life-replenishing water. It may taste plain at first if you’re coming off of a heavy soda-drinking streak, but you’ll soon find yourself addicted to it. 10 glasses per day is optimal, how many have you been getting lately?
10. Don’t take life so seriously! Learn to laugh at the little things and this whole “existence” thing will be a whole lot easier. Be amused by your mistakes and failures and be thankful that you learned your lesson and won’t mess up like that again. And most importantly do things that you enjoy! Life is not strictly business, it can be mixed with pleasure.
11. Think positive thoughts. When you find yourself thinking a negative thought, stop it immediately by any means necessary. Slap yourself in the face, yell something positive at the top of your lungs or jump up and down. Do whatever it takes to get back to a positive mindset as such is essential for continual happiness and success.
12. Read books. No explanation needed.
13. Get in the sun. Superman was completely re-energized when he flew out to space and soaked in some rays and you can do the same right outside your front door (if you live in a constantly dreary place, my apologies). The sun feels amazing: your entire body will be coursing with warmth and life.
14. Help others. I’ll just give you a plethora of reasons why this is a MUST
* Helping people has a ripple effect. If you help someone they will feel more obliged to help someone else, and so on. Pay it forward
* You grow by giving and helping others. It can change you in ways you never expected
* Your relationship with that person will become stronger
* It’s the most fulfilling thing you can do on this planet. It not only feels amazing physically, you also feel like a good person
* You might be able to call in a favor later when you need some help
* Karma (if you believe in it)
* Because there are more people in this world than just you

15. Set aside a specific time to worry each day. Ponder all of your problems and anxieties during that time so that they will not distract you during work or moments of pleasure. This way you can be extremely efficient with your time and avoid focusing on negative things as much as possible. If you get all of your worry out of the way and have the mental fortitude to keep from reverting back to them, you will be much happier on the daily.
16. Be honest at all times. Lies lead to nothing but trouble. Being known as trustworthy is an excellent trait to maintain and essential to having integrity.
17. Sleep less. Fully adjusting to a new sleep cycle can take up to 21 days so don’t give up if you feel tired after switching to 5-hour nights. The “required” 8 hour/night is for normal people. If you’re reading THIS article on THIS site, you are not normal. So figure out how much sleep YOU really need and adjust accordingly. As enjoyable as sleep is, waking existence is much more fulfilling and efficient. IF this really sparks your interest, check out alternate sleep cycles with which you can be fine off of 2 hours of sleep per day.
18. Read “Bringers of Light” and “Conversations with God” by Neale Donald Walsch. These books will help you decide what you want to do in this life and how to get to that point. They will also profoundly change the way you look at the purpose of existence. Read them!
19. Figure out what your goals and dreams are. So many people wander aimlessly through life simply go for whatever small thing they want moment by moment. Instead, decide what your perfect life consists of and begin to put the steps in motion to reach that place. The most satisfying thing in the world (yes, better than sex, much better) is overcoming a challenge and reaching a goal. We are the happiest when we are growing and working towards something better.
20. Start your day off right. Wake up and set aside an hour for personal development activities (meditation, self-introspection, observing nature, etc.) Do the things that make you feel blissful, optimistic and empowered so that you can set a positive tone for your day. I guarantee that once you start doing this, your days will be more enjoyable and fulfilling. Today is going to be the best day of your life. Duh.
21. Utilize ‘The Burning Method.’ Whenever a fear or worry or complaint comes to mind, close your eyes and imagine writing down the thought on a piece of paper. Then proceed to light the paper and fire and watch it disintegrate. Even better, actually write it down and burn it. You won’t have any problem ridding your mind of the thought after doing this.
22. Travel. Frequent Flyer Master Anyone who has ever gone anywhere will tell you that traveling is one of the most exciting and life-changing activities that you can do. Observing a different culture will expand your mind while making you further appreciate the life you already live. This goes back to becoming an explorer: this world is your jungle so go explore! Who knows, maybe you’ll find a place you love so much that you decide to move. Imagine the positive repercussions a new environment could have on your life.
23. The Rubber Band Method This is the third and final way to rid yourself of negative thoughts (hopefully by now you have figured out that this is very important!). Place a rubber band around your wrist and snap it against your skin anytime a negative thought finds its way into your head. This classical conditioning technique associates a slight pain with negative thoughts like Pavlov associated food/salivation with the sound of a bell. Sounds a bit cruel at first but it only stings for a second, I promise. Plus the outcome, having only positive thoughts, far outweighs a little slap on the wrist here and there.
24. Learn to be unaffected by the words of others. Most people get very upset when they are called negative names by others, but there is a simple trick to overcoming this. Here it is: If I went up to you and called you a fire hydrant, would you be upset? Of course not. Obviously you are not a fire hydrant, you are a human being. The same concept applies to when someone calls you something that you know you are not. They are foolish for saying such things, so why would you react with such anger? The only exception is when someone calls you something that is true! In this case, you should thank them for alerting you to a weakness, one that you can now work on changing.
25. Read “Zen and the Art of Happiness” by Chris Prentiss. This book will give you the knowledge and instruction to be happy at all times regardless of the circumstances. Yes, this sounds like an oversimplification of happiness, but I assure you that this book will change you in an amazing way.
26. Develop the ability to forgive. Forgiveness is something that most people fail miserably at even thought it’s so simple. Grudges only bring more misery to those who hold them and prevent good relations with the target. YOU makes mistakes all of the time so why not have mercy when other do? Remaining angry feels horrible while forgiving someone brings a refreshing sensation to the mind and healing to the relationship.
27. Be the person that makes others feel special. Be known for your kindness and sympathy.
28. Learn to lucid dream, or to realize when you are dreaming so that you can control your dreams. Sleep feels good, but its rather boring and unproductive. With lucid dreaming under your belt, night time can be even more exciting than when you are awake. You can do anything: fly, travel to other planets, party with a celebrity, get intimate with your dream boy/girl, etc. Many lucid dreams have also reported being able to speak directly with the subconscious during dreams by demanding to be taken to it after becoming lucid. For those that know a thing or two about your subconscious, that is a BIG deal.
29. Visualize daily. It has been said and proven time and time again that what you focus on is what you get. If you complain all of the time, you will run into more of the things you complain about. The same goes for good things like health, wealth and happiness. So spend some time in the morning imagining yourself achieving whatever it is that you currently desire. Focus is key in this exercise, so choose a quiet environment where you won’t be disturbed. If you’re having trouble focusing and continually find that your mind has wandered to something else, read about meditation in the following life tip. There is a lot more to this concept, so check out the full article on visualization and the law of attraction here.
30. Meditate everyday for at least 20 minutes. In this modern world where everyone is so connected to everything else via cell phones, TV and internet, most people rarely enjoy the beauty of silence. The ability to quiet your mind and relax your body is an art and skill that everyone should develop. Simply sit somewhere, preferably in nature, and focus on your breathing or try to think about nothing. This is going to be extremely hard at first! You might find it boring or just plain impossible to think of nothing, but you will get better and you will learn to love it. Post-meditation, you will feel extremely clear headed and.. well, just plain wonderful. The only way to really understand this sensation is to try it.
31. Learn to control your mind. What kind of skilled human are you if you cannot even control your own thoughts? While the human mind is described as being a stream of consciousness, that does not mean you can’t decide where your stream flows. Techniques like meditation and the 3 ways to flush out negative thoughts will aid you immensely in learning to control your mind.
32. Learn to control your emotions. The only person that can make you unhappy is you! You are the one that decides to be affected by the words and actions of others. Realize this so that the next time you experience a negative emotion, you can find the strength within yourself to overcome it.
33. Take a class in speed reading. Books are full of information that can enhance your knowledge-base, vocabulary and yourself as a person. Speed reading is an easy way to get at this info faster so that you can have more time for other endeavors.
34. Relax! This one is for you work-o-holics out there (myself included). Yes, work is very important and productive but you need to take some time to chill out everyday or you are going to burn out faster than a candle with no oxygen. Additionally, you need to reward yourself for a job well done. What’s the use of doing all of that work if you can’t have a little fun from time to time anyways?
35. Work on making good first impressions. Practice a strong, firm handshake and the small talk that generally goes along with meeting someone for the first time. People won’t know what to think of you if you have nothing more to say beyond “My name is _______, nice to meet you.” Also make sure you remember names, as mentioned previously. Who knows, you may be going into business with or marrying this person you’re meeting for the first time if you make a good impression. Be sure and make an excellent one.
36. Learn to use your eyes to their full potential:
* Make constant eye contact when in conversation. Looking away (especially down) is a sign of inferiority and unsureness. Instead, look at your conversation partner dead in the eyes and keep them locked on
* Master the piercing stare. You know when someone looks at you and it feels like they can see into your soul? Well that’s not a hereditary characteristic, it just takes practice. Work on sharpening your gaze in the mirror. You’ll know you have it when it’s intimidating to continue looking at yourself
* Master the one-eyebrow raise. This one isn’t necessary by any means, but hey, why not? Pick a brow to learn with and go look in a mirror. Raise both of your eyebrows but use your hand to hold down the brow that you want to stay down. This will probably feel very stupid at first but if you keep trying, you will eventually pin down the muscle you need to flex to get that one brow up
37. Be mysterious. Don’t let off everything about you and definitely leave out some major details. There is something both alluring and mesmerizing about someone that no one knows fully about. I’m not saying to confide in no one or to alienate yourself. Just think James Bond.
38. Come up with a life mantra. You know, like “Carpe Diem” or “Live life to the fullest,” but not as cliché. Make it something that really hits home with you so that you will actually stick to it. Make sure it’ not so specific that it rarely applies but also not so general that it’s not personal.
39. Get good at something. Call it a hobby or a passion, whatever it is, just get damn good at it. Your occupation does not count! Make it something that you can practice often enough to excel at. Examples: Magic tricks, surfing, ping pong, creating short films, and unicycling. It can be anything but I would recommend choosing something that: 1) You are passionate about 2) You can bust out at any moment to display your skills for any discerning crowd. My mind goes immediately to aerobatics and break dancing, but that’s just me.
40. Work out those abs. Above any other muscle group in the entire body, the abs are the most important AND, for guys, the most impressive to the opposite sex. They constitute your core, the center point of your body. Your ability to balance comes almost completely from the strength of your abdominal muscles and balance is vital to performance in any physical activity. Summary: they’re very important. For more info on how to work out your abs, check out this video.
41. Keep your brain sharp. The majority of people are stuck in ruts. They go to the same job everyday, hang out with the same friends and eat at the same places. While that may feel safe, it’s not the most stimulating lifestyle for your brain. Those synapses have been built up enough, so try something that you do NOT know how to do! Buy a model car kit, master the art of sudoku or crosswords, or go pick up another major at your nearest college. The point is you need to be learning new things to keep your brain honest. Form new synapses by forcing your mind to work in ways it has not worked before. Just like physical workouts, doing too much of the same exercise will eventually give no results. Switch it up!
42. Read something inspirational right before bed and after waking. This will set get you in a great mood for sleep and for the day. Read anything from a famous speech to your favorite self-improvement book. Try to read something that get’s you really excited in the morning especially so that you’ll leave your house beaming with energy and wonder.
43. Do what you love.Working for Yourself Guide There is a huge difference between making a life and making a living; which one are you making right now? So many spend their entire lives trying to make as much money as possible so that they can afford to do what they really want later. It makes no sense to settle in life until you’re 65 so that you can retire and do what you want when you’re already WAY past your prime. We only live life once so why wouldn’t you want to spend it pursuing your bliss? To do anything else would be a tragic waste of the freedom you are allowed if you are reading this right now. Follow your bliss and you will be a thousand times more happy than your retirement date and 40+ years younger.
44. Choose your friends wisely. You are affected far more than you think by the people you spend your time with. Do your friends share your values? Do they encourage you when you speak of your goals and dreams or do they scoff? Make sure the people around you are conducive to the lifestyle you want to lead or you will find yourself being dragged again and again into behavior that distances you from your desires. Friends with a habit of producing negative thoughts will especially hinder you. This can be a hard task to follow through with if you realize you good friend is one of these saboteurs, but you must be firm! Don’t let anyone get in the way of you being all that you can be.
45. Don’t burn bridges. By that I mean maintain your relationships with people even if you think you are never going to see them again. For example, if you are quitting your job, don’t chew out your boss before leaving! You might run into him/her again later and life and wish you had never severed ties so harshly. You never know when you might need the help of someone you knew in the past. Plus there is already too much hatred in this world, why add more towards the people you interact with?
46. Keep a journal/diary. It sounds like a very monotonous habit at first, but when you get into it, that little book will become a great way to organize your thoughts and track your growth over the years. Most of us already stay awake in bed at night pondering the events of the day anyways so why not document those thoughts in an organized fashion? That will allow you to look back and observe how your way of thinking has changed over time.
47. Read “New Pyscho-Cybernetics” by Dr. Maxwell Maltz. This book will explain why the content of your thoughts has such a profound effect on your life through religious, philosophical and scientific arguments. A must read for completely understand who this life thing works.
48. Learn to use and trust your subconscious/intuition. When you spend time in silence everyday, listen not for words but for a feeling that tells you to do something. Do not mistake your own reasoning and thoughts for those of your subconscious. If you can track where the thought came from, (this thought led to that thought which led to this thought, etc.) then it was not from your subconscious. Learning to accurately discern between the two will allow you to tap into knowledge that you don’t consciously have.
49. Develop a charismatic personality. You know, the kind of personality that is surrounded by people constantly and is the life of the party. Start visualizing yourself as THAT person. Maybe take a short course on dynamic speaking and learn some jokes. Take the time to learn some party tricks and sleight of hand. Most importantly, believe that you already are charismatic even if you fail at beign the center point of the next party. Lie to yourself constantly and tell yourself that you are more warm and gregarious than Ronald Regan. Belief is the first step! Reality will come soon after.
50. Love is all there is. If you truly want to be a master of life, let love be in your every action. Love your friends, family and enemies alike. This is the most difficult thing to do out of this entire list, which is why it is listed at #50. But if you accomplish this, you will be seen as a leader among everyone that allows hate, envy, disgust and all other negative emotions into their lives. Think Gandhi. Love is so rare in this world when compared to the massive presence of hate that by exuding love, you will immediately see yourself and the people around you change. Love. Love. Love.

Wyclef Jean with Eric Clapton ....

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Tribes of the indian nations



tribes of the indian nations

Great selection of Famous Quotes






Wisdom and Inspirational Quotes

1. It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer.
—Albert Einstein
2. Eighty percent of success is showing up.
—Woody Allen
3. I respect faith, but doubt is what gets you an education.
—Wilson Mizner
4. The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.
—Daniel J. Boorstin
5. The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.
—William Arthur Ward
6. If you don’t make mistakes, you’re not working on hard enough problems. And that’s a big mistake.
—Frank Wilczek

7. You can never get enough of what you don’t really need.
—Eric Hoffer
8. Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
—Albert Einstein
9. Do not confuse motion and progress. A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress.
—Alfred A. Montapert
10. I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody.
—Bill Cosby
11. Tomorrow is often the busiest day of the week.
—Spanish Proverb
12. Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.
—Oscar Wilde
13. There is a great difference between worry and concern. A worried person sees a problem, and a concerned person solves a problem.
—Harold Stephens
14. It is easier to fight for one’s principles than to live up to them.
—Alfred Adler
15. I hear: I forget / I see: I remember / I do: I understand
—Chinese Proverb
16. Discipline is just choosing between what you want now and what you want most.
—Unknown Author
17. The very best thing you can do for the whole world is to make the most of yourself.
—Wallace Wattles
18. Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.
—Barry LePatner
19. When I do good, I feel good; when I do bad, I feel bad, and that is my religion.
—Abraham Lincoln
20. Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
—Winston Churchill
Humor Quotes

21. If it weren’t for my lawyer, I’d still be in prison. It went a lot faster with two people digging.
—Joe Martin
22. Acquaintance, n.: A person whom we know well enough to borrow from, but not well enough to lend to.
—Ambrose Bierce
23. I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.
—Noel Coward
24. The difference between death and taxes is death doesn’t get worse every time Congress meets.
—Will Rogers
25. You know you’re getting old when you stop to tie your shoelaces and wonder what else you could do while you’re down there.
—George Burns
26. Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
—Groucho Marx
27. Those are my principles. If you don’t like them I have others.
—Groucho Marx
28. Somewhere on this globe, every ten seconds, there is a woman giving birth to a child. She must be found and stopped.
—Sam Levenson
29. Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur. (Whatever is said in Latin sounds profound.)
—Unknown Author
30. The most remarkable thing about my mother is that for thirty years she served the family nothing but leftovers. The original meal has never been found.
—Calvin Trillin
31. The tooth fairy teaches children that they can sell body parts for money.
—David Richerby
32. My friends tell me I have an intimacy problem. But they don’t really know me.
—Garry Shandling
33. I don’t deserve this award, but I have arthritis and I don’t deserve that either.
—Jack Benny
34. I always wanted to be somebody, but now I realize I should have been more specific.
—Lily Tomlin
35. If God wanted us to fly, He would have given us tickets.
—Mel Brooks
36. If I only had a little humility, I’d be perfect.
—Ted Turner
37. When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading.
—Henny Youngman
38. The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.
—Groucho Marx
39. Hofstadter’s Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.
—Douglas Hofstadter
40. Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.
—Franklin P. Jones
Otherwise Interesting Quotes

41. Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school.
—Albert Einstein
42. Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon.
—Susan Erz
43. Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
—Pablo Picasso
44. A genius! For 37 years I’ve practised fourteen hours a day, and now they call me a genius!
—Pablo Sarasate
45. There is nobody so irritating as somebody with less intelligence and more sense than we have.
—Don Herold
46. The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.
—Michael Althsuler
47. The little I know I owe to my ignorance.
—Orville Mars
48. The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
—George Bernard Shaw
49. In God we trust; all others bring data.
—Dr. W. Edwards Deming
50. The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug.
—Mark Twain
51. Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
—Mark Twain
52. My definition of a free society is a society where it is safe to be unpopular.
—Adlai E. Stevenson Jr.
53. Simple, clear purpose and principles give rise to complex and intelligent behavior. Complex rules and regulations give rise to simple and stupid behavior.
—Dee Hock
54. Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere.
—Albert Einstein
55. In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.
—Dwight D. Eisenhower
56. The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth.
—Niels Bohr
57. Before you go and criticize the younger generation, just remember who raised them.
—Unknown Author
58. Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.
—Arthur Schopenhauer
59. It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.
—Harry Truman
60. A conclusion is the place where you got tired thinking.
—Martin H. Fischer

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Monday, August 23, 2010

A classic example of the prisoner's dilemma...


The prisoner's dilemma is a fundamental problem in game theory that demonstrates why two people might not cooperate even if it is in both their best interests to do so. It was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND in 1950. Albert W. Tucker formalized the game with prison sentence payoffs and gave it the "prisoner's dilemma" name (Poundstone, 1992).

A classic example of the prisoner's dilemma (PD) is presented as follows:

Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated the prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies for the prosecution against the other (defects) and the other remains silent (cooperates), the defector goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act?

If we assume that each player cares only about minimizing his or her own time in jail, then the prisoner's dilemma forms a non-zero-sum game in which two players may each either cooperate with or defect from (betray) the other player. In this game, as in most game theory, the only concern of each individual player (prisoner) is maximizing his or her own payoff, without any concern for the other player's payoff. The unique equilibrium for this game is a Pareto-suboptimal solution, that is, rational choice leads the two players to both play defect, even though each player's individual reward would be greater if they both played cooperatively.

In the classic form of this game, cooperating is strictly dominated by defecting, so that the only possible equilibrium for the game is for all players to defect. No matter what the other player does, one player will always gain a greater payoff by playing defect. Since in any situation playing defect is more beneficial than cooperating, all rational players will play defect, all things being equal.

In the iterated prisoner's dilemma, the game is played repeatedly. Thus each player has an opportunity to punish the other player for previous non-cooperative play. If the number of steps is known by both players in advance, economic theory says that the two players should defect again and again, no matter how many times the game is played. However, this analysis fails to predict the behavior of human players in a real iterated prisoners dilemma situation, and it also fails to predict the optimum algorithm when computer programs play in a tournament. Only when the players play an indefinite or random number of times can cooperation be an equilibrium, technically a subgame perfect equilibrium meaning that both players defecting always remains an equilibrium and there are many other equilibrium outcomes. In this case, the incentive to defect can be overcome by the threat of punishment.

In casual usage, the label "prisoner's dilemma" may be applied to situations not strictly matching the formal criteria of the classic or iterative games, for instance, those in which two entities could gain important benefits from cooperating or suffer from the failure to do so, but find it merely difficult or expensive, not necessarily impossible, to coordinate their activities to achieve cooperation.

Strategy for the classical prisoner's dilemma

The classical prisoner's dilemma can be summarized thus:

Prisoner B Stays Silent Prisoner B Betrays
Prisoner A Stays Silent Each serves 6 months Prisoner A: 10 years
Prisoner B: goes free
Prisoner A Betrays Prisoner A: goes free
Prisoner B: 10 years Each serves 5 years

Saturday, August 21, 2010

"Seven Blunders of the World" by Mahatma Gandhi


"Seven Blunders of the World"


1. Wealth without work

2. Pleasure without conscience

3. Knowledge without character

4. Commerce without morality

5. Science without humanity

6. Worship without sacrifice

7. Politics without principle


—Mahatma Gandhi

How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie


How to Win Friends and Influence People
This is Dale Carnegie's summary of his book, from 1936
Table of Contents

1. Fundamental Techniques in Handling People
2. Six Ways to Make People Like You
3. How to Win People to Your Way of Thinking
4. Be a Leader: How to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment

Part One
Fundamental Techniques in Handling People

1. Don't criticize, condemn or complain.
2. Give honest and sincere appreciation.
3. Arouse in the other person an eager want.

Part Two
Six ways to make people like you

1. Become genuinely interested in other people.
2. Smile.
3. Remember that a person's name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.
4. Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.
5. Talk in terms of the other person's interests.
6. Make the other person feel important - and do it sincerely.

Part Three
Win people to your way of thinking

1. The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.
2. Show respect for the other person's opinions. Never say, "You're wrong."
3. If you are wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.
4. Begin in a friendly way.
5. Get the other person saying "yes, yes" immediately.
6. Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.
7. Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.
8. Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view.
9. Be sympathetic with the other person's ideas and desires.
10. Appeal to the nobler motives.
11. Dramatize your ideas.
12. Throw down a challenge.

Part Four
Be a Leader: How to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment
A leader's job often includes changing your people's attitudes and behavior. Some suggestions to accomplish this:

1. Begin with praise and honest appreciation.
2. Call attention to people's mistakes indirectly.
3. Talk about your own mistakes before criticizing the other person.
4. Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.
5. Let the other person save face.
6. Praise the slightest improvement and praise every improvement. Be "hearty in your approbation and lavish in your praise."
7. Give the other person a fine reputation to live up to.
8. Use encouragement. Make the fault seem easy to correct.
9. Make the other person happy about doing the thing you suggest.

How to win friends and influence people

Dalai Lama’s 18 rules for living

Dalai Lama’s 18 rules for living

At the start of the new millennium the Dalai Lama apparently issued eighteen rules for living.

1. Take into account that great love and great achievements involve great risk.
2. When you lose, don’t lose the lesson.
3. Follow the three Rs:
1. Respect for self
2. Respect for others
3. Responsibility for all your actions.
4. Remember that not getting what you want is sometimes a wonderful stroke of luck.
5. Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly.
6. Don’t let a little dispute injure a great friendship.
7. When you realize you’ve made a mistake, take immediate steps to correct it.
8. Spend some time alone every day.
9. Open your arms to change, but don’t let go of your values.
10. Remember that silence is sometimes the best answer.
11. Live a good, honourable life. Then when you get older and think back, you’ll be able to enjoy it a second time.
12. A loving atmosphere in your home is the foundation for your life.
13. In disagreements with loved ones, deal only with the current situation. Don’t bring up the past.
14. Share your knowledge. It’s a way to achieve immortality.
15. Be gentle with the earth.
16. Once a year, go someplace you’ve never been before.
17. Remember that the best relationship is one in which your love for each other exceeds your need for each other.
18. Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it.

textsnip

Friday, August 20, 2010

The Gambler's Fallacy


The Gambler's Fallacy

The Gambler's Fallacy is a powerful and deceptive false belief — if this fallacy were to suddenly disappear, many gambling casinos would go out of business.

Here's how it works — let's say we flip a fair coin, one that has an equal chance of coming up heads or tails. By definition, the probability for heads on the first flip is 0.5 or ½. Now think about these questions:

* If you have just gotten one heads result, what is the probability for heads on the next flip?
* If you have just gotten one tails result, what is the probability for heads on the next flip?
* If you have just gotten eight heads results in a row, what is the probability for heads on the next flip?

Contrary to a widely held belief, the answer to all the above questions is ... 0.5 or ½. Regardless of what has happened before, the probability for heads in the next coin flip is exactly the same.

This fallacy has its roots in confusion between the probability of a sequence of events and the probability of an event separate from the sequence in which it appears:

* The probability of tossing eight heads in a row is 2-8, or 1/256.
* But during the eight coin tosses, the probability of each new heads result considered separately is ½.

Casinos make vast sums of money from people who think, "I've lost repeatedly at this (roulette wheel / slot machine / card game), therefore my probability of winning must be increasing, so no only should I keep playing, but I should increase my bets." But in fact, a past winning or losing streak cannot change one's future odds of winning.

I've often wondered whether an education in math might cure the Gambler's Fallacy.

The Gambler's Fallacy

An Essay by Einstein -- The World As I See It


"How strange is the lot of us mortals! Each of us is here for a brief sojourn; for what purpose he knows not, though he sometimes thinks he senses it. But without deeper reflection one knows from daily life that one exists for other people -- first of all for those upon whose smiles and well-being our own happiness is wholly dependent, and then for the many, unknown to us, to whose destinies we are bound by the ties of sympathy. A hundred times every day I remind myself that my inner and outer life are based on the labors of other men, living and dead, and that I must exert myself in order to give in the same measure as I have received and am still receiving...

"I have never looked upon ease and happiness as ends in themselves -- this critical basis I call the ideal of a pigsty. The ideals that have lighted my way, and time after time have given me new courage to face life cheerfully, have been Kindness, Beauty, and Truth. Without the sense of kinship with men of like mind, without the occupation with the objective world, the eternally unattainable in the field of art and scientific endeavors, life would have seemed empty to me. The trite objects of human efforts -- possessions, outward success, luxury -- have always seemed to me contemptible.

"My passionate sense of social justice and social responsibility has always contrasted oddly with my pronounced lack of need for direct contact with other human beings and human communities. I am truly a 'lone traveler' and have never belonged to my country, my home, my friends, or even my immediate family, with my whole heart; in the face of all these ties, I have never lost a sense of distance and a need for solitude..."
"My political ideal is democracy. Let every man be respected as an individual and no man idolized. It is an irony of fate that I myself have been the recipient of excessive admiration and reverence from my fellow-beings, through no fault, and no merit, of my own. The cause of this may well be the desire, unattainable for many, to understand the few ideas to which I have with my feeble powers attained through ceaseless struggle. I am quite aware that for any organization to reach its goals, one man must do the thinking and directing and generally bear the responsibility. But the led must not be coerced, they must be able to choose their leader. In my opinion, an autocratic system of coercion soon degenerates; force attracts men of low morality... The really valuable thing in the pageant of human life seems to me not the political state, but the creative, sentient individual, the personality; it alone creates the noble and the sublime, while the herd as such remains dull in thought and dull in feeling.

"This topic brings me to that worst outcrop of herd life, the military system, which I abhor... This plague-spot of civilization ought to be abolished with all possible speed. Heroism on command, senseless violence, and all the loathsome nonsense that goes by the name of patriotism -- how passionately I hate them!

"The most beautiful experience we can have is the mysterious. It is the fundamental emotion that stands at the cradle of true art and true science. Whoever does not know it and can no longer wonder, no longer marvel, is as good as dead, and his eyes are dimmed. It was the experience of mystery -- even if mixed with fear -- that engendered religion. A knowledge of the existence of something we cannot penetrate, our perceptions of the profoundest reason and the most radiant beauty, which only in their most primitive forms are accessible to our minds: it is this knowledge and this emotion that constitute true religiosity. In this sense, and only this sense, I am a deeply religious man... I am satisfied with the mystery of life's eternity and with a knowledge, a sense, of the marvelous structure of existence -- as well as the humble attempt to understand even a tiny portion of the Reason that manifests itself in nature."

Albert Einstein (signature)

One Love By Boob Marley

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Really Unusually Uncertain By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN


Really Unusually Uncertain
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
August 17, 2010
The New York Times


Over the past few weeks I’ve had a chance to speak with senior economic policy makers in America and Germany and I think I’ve figured out where we are. It’s like this: things are getting better, except where they aren’t. The bailouts are working, except where they’re not. Things will slowly get better, unless they slowly get worse. We should know soon, unless we don’t.

It is no wonder that businesses are reluctant to hire with such “unusual uncertainty,” as Fed chief Ben Bernanke put it. One reason it is so unusual is that we are not just trying to recover from a financial crisis triggered by crazy mortgage lending. We’re also having to deal with three huge structural problems that built up over several decades and have reached a point of criticality at the same time.

And as Mohamed El-Erian, the C.E.O. of Pimco, has been repeating, “Structural problems need structural solutions.” There are no quick fixes. In America and Europe, we are going to need some big structural fixes to get back on a sustained growth path — changes that will require a level of political consensus and sacrifice that has been sorely lacking in most countries up to now.

The first big structural problem is America’s. We’ve just ended more than a decade of debt-fueled growth during which we borrowed money from China to give ourselves a tax cut and more entitlements but did nothing to curtail spending or make long-term investments in new growth engines. Now our government owes more than ever and has more future obligations than ever — like expanded Medicare prescription drug benefits, expanded health care, an expanded war in Afghanistan and expanded Social Security payments (because the baby boomers are about to retire) — and less real growth to pay for it all.

America will probably need some added stimulus to kick start employment, but any stimulus right now must be in growth-enabling investments that will yield more than their costs, or they just increase debt. That means investments in skill building and infrastructure plus tax incentives for starting new businesses and export promotion. To get a stimulus through Congress it must be paired with spending cuts and/or tax increases timed for when the economy improves.

Second, America’s solvency inflection point is coinciding with a technological one. Thanks to Internet diffusion, the rise of cloud computing, social networking and the shift from laptops and desktops to hand-held iPads and iPhones, technology is destroying older, less skilled jobs that paid a decent wage at a faster pace than ever while spinning off more new skilled jobs that pay a decent wage but require more education than ever.

There is only one way to deal with this challenge: more innovation to stimulate new industries and jobs that can pay workers $40 an hour, coupled with a huge initiative to train more Americans to win these jobs over their global competitors. There is no other way.

But the global economy needs a healthy Europe as well, and the third structural challenge we face is that the European Union, a huge market, is facing what the former U.S. ambassador to Germany, John Kornblum, calls its first “existential crisis.” For the first time, he noted, the E.U. “saw the possibility of collapse.” Germany has made clear that if the eurozone is to continue, it will be on the German work ethic not the Greek one. Will its euro-partners be able to raise their games? Uncertain.

Keeping up with Germany won’t be easy. A decade ago Germany was the “sick man of Europe.” No more. The Germans pulled together. Labor gave up wage hikes and allowed businesses to improve competitiveness and worker flexibility, while the government subsidized firms to keep skilled workers on the job in the downturn. Germany is now on the rise, but also not free of structural challenges. Its growth depends on exports to China and it is the biggest financier of Greece. Still, “Germany is no longer the country with the oldest students and youngest retirees,” said Kornblum.

By contrast, America’s two big parties still cling to their core religious beliefs as if nothing has changed. Republicans try to undermine the president at every turn and offer their nostrum of tax-cuts-will-solve-everything — without ever specifying what services they’ll give up to pay for them. Mr. Obama gave us expanded health care before expanding the economic pie to sustain it.

You still don’t sense our politicians are saying, “Wait a minute; stop everything; we have got to work together.” Don’t these people have 401k plans of their own and kids worried about jobs?

The president needs to take America’s labor, business and Congressional leadership up to Camp David and not come back without a grand bargain for taxes, trade promotion, energy, stimulus and budget cutting that offers the market some certainty that we are moving together — not just on a bailout but on an economic rebirth for the 21st century. “Fat chance,” you say. Well then, I say get ready for a long phase of stubborn unemployment and anemic growth.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Quem mais ainda é de esquerda? by Alexandre Barros - O Estado de S.Paulo


Quem mais ainda é de esquerda?
17 de agosto de 2010 | 0h 00

Alexandre Barros - O Estado de S.Paulo

A esquerda completou 200 anos. Começou na Revolução Francesa. Eram os antimonarquistas que, na Assembleia dos Estados Gerais, se sentavam do lado esquerdo. Desde então, a esquerda foi mudando sutilmente de sentido, mantendo a ideia geral de que esquerda eram os favoráveis ao povo e contra os privilégios.


O progresso tecnológico que tomou impulso ali por 1850 e a Revolução Soviética de 1917 mudaram o mundo, mas, por inércia, perpetuou-se a ideia de que esquerda seria tudo o que era pró-povo. Era uma distorção, mas as desigualdades mantinham o conceito vivo, já apoiado na bengala.

A partir de 1950 o consumo de massa deu os primeiros passos, com o fim da 2.ª Guerra Mundial e a aceleração do crescimento nos Estados Unidos, na Europa do Plano Marshall e no Japão. A tomada do poder pelos comunistas de Mao Tsé-tung, na China, e a guerra fria engessaram o conceito, mas nessa altura ele já andava de muletas, e não mais de bengala.

A política brasileira manteve, entretanto, uma característica curiosa, herdada, talvez, do populismo getulista. Todos queriam ser a favor do povo e, encabulados, definiam-se como "meio de esquerda". As ditaduras latino-americanas iniciadas nas décadas de 1960 e 1970 ajudavam. No Brasil, ser de esquerda era ser contra a ditadura, e aí o conceito parou. Velhos políticos, como os nossos principais candidatos presidenciais, formaram-se nessa época e congelaram o conceito em sua cabeça.

O País passou por muita coisa e mudou, principalmente a demografia. O Brasil de 2010 tem mais que o triplo da população da década de 1950. E esse crescimento acelerou-se até 1980, quando as mulheres brasileiras chegaram à conclusão de que não era mais vantagem ter tantos filhos, apesar do que achavam igrejas, militares e governos, que nada faziam para reduzir o ritmo de crescimento da população.

Os 66% da população brasileira nascidos a partir dos anos 50 já pegaram o conceito de esquerda à morte. O crescimento econômico acelerado incorporava cada vez mais pessoas à sociedade de consumo, por mais básico que fosse esse consumo.

A mídia de massa mostrava às pessoas como viviam a classe média e os ricos. E todos queriam ser ricos. A esquerda não era o caminho. Quando Ronald Reagan disse a Mikhail Gorbachev, em Berlim, "sr. Gorbachev, derrube esse muro", o Muro finalmente caiu em 9 de novembro de1989. Aí o conceito de esquerda perdeu qualquer significado, inclusive no Brasil.

Curiosamente, ainda em 2010 os dois candidatos à Presidência da República mais bem colocados nas pesquisas, formados politicamente que foram durante o regime militar, continuam com a dicotomia maniqueísta. Parecem não perceber que o Brasil e o mundo mudaram.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso, que, alegadamente, teria dito "esqueçam tudo o que eu escrevi", libertou-se das algemas. Lula só era "de esquerda" porque seus opositores assim o definiam. Ele estava fora da ideia de esquerda dos tempos da guerra fria. No dizer de um general importante do período 1964-1990, Lula sempre foi do sistema, isto é, ele lutou com as armas políticas aceitas e possíveis do fim do regime militar. Marina Silva é outra que não se encaixava nisso. Estava lutando pela sua floresta e era mais verde do que o azul ou o vermelho da guerra fria.

Mas os dois candidatos majoritários nas pesquisas seguem atraídos por conceitos que não fazem mais sentido. Em sua retórica de campanha batalham para responder à pergunta que o eleitorado não está fazendo: quem é mais de esquerda?

A candidata Dilma Rousseff (PT) - que num esquema tradicional seria chamada "de esquerda" -, curiosamente, porém, busca se afastar um pouco do conceito oco, enquanto o candidato José Serra (PSDB) se apega a ele, tentando convencer o eleitorado de que é mais "de esquerda" que sua principal concorrente.

Enquanto isso, em outros pontos do universo político, Aldo Rebelo, do PCdoB (SP), apoia e promove um projeto de lei para desengessar as regulamentações ambientais e facilitar o crescimento do moderno agronegócio brasileiro, e outros projetos essenciais para o enriquecimento. Uma postura totalmente inesperada para os que ainda se apegam aos conceitos anacrônicos de esquerda e direita. Eduardo Campos, do PSB, governador de Pernambuco, neto de Miguel Arraes, livrou-se da prisão conceitual e faz um governo tão livre quanto possível da dicotomia ultrapassada. Sérgio Cabral (PMDB), no Rio de Janeiro, filho de um comunista histórico, possivelmente ganhará em primeiro turno tentando ser um governador moderno.


Em São Paulo, o presidenciável José Serra, que insiste em se dizer de esquerda, quase não fala com o candidato a governador pelo PSDB, que faz questão de não ter nada que ver com esquerda ou direita, tendo chegado a ser apelidado de "picolé de chuchu", numa analogia com o que de mais insosso pode existir em gastronomia.


Quando será que os candidatos a presidente vão acordar e perceber o que o povo brasileiro já aprendeu: que a esquerda e a direita ficaram ocas? Elas não querem dizer mais nada. Com inflação baixa, crédito abundante e produtos para consumir, os eleitores de hoje são conservadores em relação a manter o que conquistaram ou ganharam nos últimos três governos - Itamar Franco, Fernando Henrique e Lula.


Roucos de tanto ouvir isso, os dois candidatos mais bem colocados nas pesquisas bradam coisas que a maioria do eleitorado brasileiro nem sequer sabe o que querem dizer. Insistem em responder à pergunta: quem é mais de esquerda? Quando o máximo que o moderno eleitorado brasileiro, de 135 milhões de pessoas, quer saber mesmo é: quem mais ainda é de esquerda?


Acordem, Dilma Rousseff e José Serra, parem de se esforçar para responder à pergunta que o Brasil não está mais fazendo.




CIENTISTA POLÍTICO, É DIRETOR-GERENTE DA EARLY WARNING: OPORTUNIDADE E RISCO POLÍTICO (BRASÍLIA). E-MAIL: ALEX@EAW.COM.BR

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Brucia La Terra... Godfather III song


Gian Campione - Brucia la terra
Cargado por ginagrigento. - Más video blogs y vloggers.





Title: Brucia La Terra

Brucia la luna n’cielu
E ju bruciu d’amuri
Focu ca si consuma
Comu lu me cori
L’anima chianci
Addulurata

Non si da paci
Ma cchi mala nuttata

Lu tempu passa
Ma non agghiorna
Non c’e mai suli
S’idda non torna

Brucia la terra mia
E abbrucia lu me cori
Cchi siti d’acqua idda
E ju siti d’amuri

Acu la cantu
La me canzuni

Si no c’e nuddu
Ca s’a affacia
A lu barcuni

Brucia la luna n’cielu
E ju bruciu d’amuri
Focu ca si consuma
Comu lu me cori
Title: Earth Is Burning

The moon is burning in the sky
And I am burning with love
The fire that is consumed
Like my heart
My soul crys
Painfully

I’m not at peace
What a terrible night

The time passes
But there is no dawn
There is no sunshine
If she doesn’t return

My earth is burning
And my heart is burning
What she thirsts for water
I thirst for love

Who will I sing
My song to

If there is no one
Who shows herself
On the balcony

The moon is burning in the sky
And I am burning with love
The fire that is consumed
Like my heart

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Via Crucis by Bruno Tolentino


Via Crucis

A Via Crucis foi uma selvageria,
a Crucifixão uma brutalidade;
mas em três, quatro horas, acabou a agonia,
baixou a eternidade.

Eu vivo aqui, crucificada noite e dia,
carrego da manhã à tarde
o meu lenho de opróbrio e a noite me excrucia,
lenta, fria, covarde.

Ah, como eu preferia
que me crucificassem de uma vez, sem o alarde
de algum terceiro dia!

Mas toca-me seguir nessa monotonia,
a agonia de alçar-me do catre
e abrir de novo os braços, vazia.
(De As Horas de Katharina)

Monday, August 09, 2010

Niccoló Machiavelli, about BUREACRACY & BUREAUCRATS..The Discourses. 1517.


The institutions of a city never should place it in the power of a few to interrupt all the important business of the republic. -

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

my "Lucky clover"



The four-leaf clover is an uncommon variation of the common, three-leaved clover. According to tradition, such leaves bring good luck to their finders, especially if found accidentally.[1] According to legend, each leaf represents something: the first is for hope, the second is for faith, the third is for love, and the fourth is for luck.
Lucky Clover

I found my lucky clover in 1968 in my grand mother's house yard at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.. in the picture is a the real one -which has been in my possession for four decades.. my Grandma ... wrote the words describing the event personally..

Thursday, July 29, 2010

.É uma ameaça: tente abrir uma empresa! CARLOS ALBERTO SARDENBERG


Triste realidade do emprrsario brasileiro.!!!!!

O Globo

Claro, você não pode abrir um estabelecimento sem a assistência e a fiscalização dos bombeiros. Também é claro que o Corpo de Bombeiros não vai fazer isso de graça. Quer dizer, já não é tão claro, porque pagamos impostos demais neste país, mas, enfim, vá lá.

Agora, qual o preço dessa atividade dos bombeiros? Dependeria, digamos, da qualidade dos serviços? Se for assim, então os melhores bombeiros do Brasil são os de Sergipe.

Lá, o empreendedor tem que pagar nada menos que R$ 2.442 para obter o competente alvará. No Acre é bem mais barato. Sai por apenas R$ 72. Como se explica? Duas possibilidades: ou os bombeiros do Acre são mais eficientes, de modo que conseguem fazer o mesmo serviço por menos dinheiro; ou fazem tudo de qualquer jeito, qualquer trocado está bem pago.

Visto de outro ângulo: será que o custo de operação dos bombeiros de Sergipe é tão elevado assim, de modo a justificar o alvará mais caro do Brasil? Ou seja, não tem critério algum. A definição do preço é totalmente arbitrária, dependendo de conveniências e necessidades locais.

E não é só nesse item. Claro que você não pode abrir um negócio de porte médio para grande sem um contrato. E como fazer isso sem um advogado? O cara é profissional, não vai trabalhar de graça. Quanto custa o serviço? A OAB fixa tabela mínima.

Em Santa Catarina, os advogados devem ser de primeira. Lá, o “visto”, como se diz, custa nada menos que R$ 2.681, o mais caro do país. Já na Paraíba, sai por apenas 200 reais, o mais barato. Terão os meios jurídicos nacionais percebido que as empresas registradas em Santa Catarina têm os melhores contratos do Brasil? Mas sabe se que a constituição de uma empresa média em Santa Catarina é a mais cara do Brasil. O custo é de R$ 4.432, isso se não for do ramo de alimentação, por exemplo. Aí, precisa do alvará sanitário. No Rio, isso custa um pouco mais de dois mil reais. Assim, abrir uma empresa sem alvará sanitário é mais caro em Santa Catarina. Com, fica mais caro no Rio, mais de cinco mil reais.

Segundo uma pesquisa nacional da Firjan, divulgada nesta semana, a abertura da empresa exige de 6 a 8 etapas burocráticas, o pagamento de 12 a 16 taxas, com 43 documentos.

Aí o empresário venceu todo esse caminho e começa a produzir. Agora é faturar e lucrar, certo? Nada disso.

Antes de vender, ele já está pagando impostos.

Digamos que tenha montado uma siderúrgica.

Sabem qual a tributação sobre a produção de aço? De 35% a 38% do custo total da operação, segundo um estudo do Ministério de Minas e Energia.

Pagar impostos não é simples. Dada a enorme complexidade de nosso sistema tributário, a empresa precisa de contadores, advogados, administradores — com seus computadores, sistemas e funcionários auxiliares, em instalações às vezes maiores que a fábrica.

Ou seja, tem o custo tributário e o

custo operacional do custo tributário.

E todas essas despesas feitas antes de faturar o primeiro centavo.

A Fiesp, em outro estudo divulgado nesta semana, calculou quanto as empresas brasileiras gastam com a burocracia a que são submetidas.

São nada menos que R$ 46,3 bilhões/ ano, equivalente a 1,5% do PIB.

Para comparar: os investimentos totais no Brasil chegam, na média recente, a 17% do PIB. Ou seja, a burocracia comeu nada menos que 10% disso. Ou ainda, as empresas gastam com burocracia três vezes mais do que gastam em pesquisa e desenvolvimento.

Isso em um país que precisa de mais investimentos e mais empresas privadas, que são a principal base do crescimento.

Mas, tudo bem. Todas as etapas foram vencidas, a empresa está lá funcionando, o produto é bom, vende bem, vida que segue. Segue? O administrador avisa que saiu uma nova regulamentação para marcar o ponto. Agora, toda empresa precisa ter uma máquina eletrônica que emite um recibo em papel com a hora de entrada e de saída do trabalhador.

Mais custos: com a nova máquina (pelo menos 4 mil reais) e com o papel dos recibos. Paciência, o diretor manda comprar o aparelho.

Não está disponível na praça. Talvez importando. (É como a cadeirinha de crianças para automóveis. A regra tornou-a obrigatória, mas não tinha no mercado).

Mas o bravo empresário importou a máquina, pagou ágio e está satisfeito com o rigor do controle de entrada e saída.

Está lá sossegado, achando que merece uma medalha ou um desconto nos impostos por cumprir tão bem a lei e as regras, quando aparece um outro fiscal. E essas tomadas que não foram substituídas? — Tomadas? — Ora, o senhor não sabe que saiu uma regra dizendo que todas as tomadas têm de ser brasileiras? — Como brasileiras? — É um modelo autêntico brasileiro, não tem igual em nenhum outro lugar, tem que trocar tudo.

— Caramba! O empresário ganha um prazo para trocar as tomadas, mas seu engenheiro eletricista diz que os aparelhos, internacionais, não são adequados à novas tomadas. Ora, compre adaptadores.

Não tem desse tipo na praça.

E depois reclamam quando ....

Bom, deixa pra lá.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Admirável Brasil novo by Nelson Motta

Admirável Brasil novo Nelson Motta

O Globo - 23/07/2010

Estamos vivendo a alvorada de uma nova era no Brasil, com grandes transformações econômicas e sociais, gerando novos significados para velhas expressões. E até novos conceitos filosóficos, como minto, logo, existo, como foi comprovado nos depoimentos das CPIs.


Atualmente, os empresários não querem mais ter lucro, eles só trabalham para gerar empregos. Os bancos e grandes empresas só pensam em salvar o planeta, pela sustentabilidade.

As organizações não governamentais são sustentadas pelo governo.

Só falta o almoço grátis.

Modernizamos até mesmo provérbios universais consagrados pela sabedoria popular. As apavorantes galerias de fotos de nossas casas legislativas são o desmentido cabal de que as aparências enganam. Nas Comissões de Ética, ladrão que julga ladrão dá cem anos de perdão, e é mais fácil o Marcelo Camelo passar pelo buraco de uma agulha do que o STF condenar um parlamentar. Aqui se faz e aqui se apaga. No Brasil, o ladrão faz a ocasião, com emendas parlamentares e contribuições de campanha. Porque a liberdade deles começa onde termina a nossa.

Neste país, quem dá (dinheiro público) aos pobres, empresta aos seus, naturalmente eleitores. Contra fatos não há argumentos, só bons advogados e lobistas eficientes. Macacos velhos têm suas cumbucas em paraísos fiscais, dinheiro sujo não se lava em casa. São partidos, partidos, negócios à parte a parte de cada um no negócio. Afinal, tudo vale a pena se a multa é pequena.

Como se ve no noticiário politico, mentir e coçar é só começar, conversa mole tanto bate até que cola, e CPI que é ladra não morde. Quem não mama, chora. Aqui, o barato não sai caro, no Senado sai de graça. O segredo é a lama do negócio.

No Brasil, tristezas não pagam dívidas de campanha, quando um burro fala os outros aplaudem, os cães ladram e a caravana é assaltada, e quando um não quer dois não roubam, chamam mais gente: os meios justificam os afins.

Aqui se dá a Lula o que é de Deus e a César, talvez, o Senado, porque Lula é a voz do povo e dá a bolsa conforme o eleitor. O principe é o sapo.

Só espero que quem o voto fere, pelo voto seja ferido

Friday, July 16, 2010

Karate Shotokan sequence

Monday, May 24, 2010

Lula: jugar en primera división sin mojarse by JORGE CASTAÑEDA el Pais.com

Lula: jugar en primera división sin mojarse

JORGE CASTAÑEDA 24/05/2010



Hace tiempo que el Brasil de Lula busca un papel global, y que el mundo reconoce sus méritos y celebra sus esfuerzos. La prensa internacional ha hecho del gigante sudamericano la niña de sus ojos, colocando en un mismo plano el carisma de Lula, el Mundial de Fútbol del 2014, las Olimpiadas del 2016, el desempeño de Itamaratí (la Cancillería) en la Ronda Doha y el creciente papel brasileño en América Latina, desplazando tanto a México como a Estados Unidos, incluso en el patio trasero de ambos: Honduras.


A Washington le irrita que un aliado sin "vela en el entierro" entorpezca sus planes, sean o no justos

Lula puede salir airoso de su mediación en Irán o acabar mal con todos

En realidad, detrás de unas magníficas relaciones públicas y 16 años de buen gobierno (Cardoso y Lula), aunados a un crecimiento económico mediano pero sostenido, se perfilan varias aventuras diplomáticas fallidas, disimuladas por la superficialidad y la inercia mediáticas. Pero quizás se acerque la hora de la verdad, ya sea para confirmar el surgimiento de un nuevo protagonista global, ya sea para corroborar una obviedad: no bastan las ganas para ser una potencia mundial.

En efecto, el intento de Lula por lograr, de la mano de Turquía y de su mágica mancuerna diplomática (el primer ministro Erdogan y el canciller Davutoglu), un acuerdo con el régimen iraní que impidiera la imposición de nuevas sanciones a Teherán puede convertirse en un éxito notable o en una debacle. Los dos miembros no permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU (CSONU) presentaron la semana pasada un acuerdo con el presidente Ahmadineyad cuyo propósito ostensible consiste en evitar que el programa de enriquecimiento de uranio iraní se traduzca en la fabricación de una arma atómica. Para ello, propusieron canjear, en el plazo de un año, uranio enriquecido de bajo grado iraní por varillas occidentales de uranio enriquecido de alto grado, destinadas exclusivamente al reactor de investigación de Teherán.

El propósito real residió, sin embargo, en impedir que el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas considerara -y en su caso aprobara- un paquete de nuevas sanciones contra el país gobernado por los ayatolás. Dicha eventualidad hubiera obligado a Ankara y a Brasilia a afrontar una disyuntiva del diablo: seguir el consenso anti-Teherán y traicionar su propia retórica, u oponerse a una resolución patrocinada por los miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad y quedarse solos en el intento, mostrando el aislamiento y la confrontación que entraña su "nueva diplomacia".

La lógica turca es evidente. La república aún kemalista posee intereses reales en la zona. Lleva a cabo un comercio intenso con su vecino; tiene en común una población kurda significativa; recibe parte de su gas y petróleo de Irán; una proporción importante de la población iraní habla turco. Su nueva política exterior consiste en alejarse de las viejas posturaspro Estados Unidos y pro Israel (Turquía es miembro fundador de la OTAN) y en acercarse a sus vecinos -Siria, Grecia e Irán, por supuesto- y al mundo islámico en su conjunto.

La lógica brasileña es menos obvia. No hay intereses significativos de Brasil en Irán, el antisemitismo de Ahmadineyad es mal visto por la comunidad judía de São Paulo, e Itamaratí sabe muy bien que pocas cosas exasperan más a los norteamericanos que un país aliado sin "vela en el entierro" entorpezca sus propósitos, con independencia de la justeza de estos últimos. En el fondo, el gambito de Lula es otro: utilizar la inminente crisis iraní para consolidar su lugar en el firmamento diplomático internacional.

El problema es que el acuerdo de Teherán no bastó para impedir la presentación de un proyecto de resolución por Washington y los demás miembros permanentes del Consejo, que contempla una cuarta etapa de sanciones con más dientes y más amplias. Todo indica, incluso, que los norteamericanos pudieron contar desde antes del esfuerzo turco-brasileño con los nueve votos necesarios para aprobar su resolución, dada por lo menos la abstención rusa y china para evitar un veto. Austria, Japón, Gabón, Uganda y México se encontraban en principio a bordo y Bosnia-Herzegovina y Nigeria en el limbo. Ya existía en principio una coalición suficiente para imponer nuevas sanciones, incluyendo un embargo de materiales susceptibles de ser utilizados para la construcción de misiles y no sólo de la ojiva nuclear que portarían.

Así, de prosperar la iniciativa de Estados Unidos, Francia y el Reino Unido (apoyada por Alemania y tolerada, en todo caso, por Rusia y por China), Brasil se hallaría en el peor de los mundos posibles. Tendrá que tomar partido, después de buscar evitarlo a través de un compromiso que adoleció de un defecto congénito. Una de las partes, es decir, Washington, nunca estuvo de acuerdo, aunque Davutoglu insista en que todo fue consultado con la secretaria de Estado Clinton. Si Brasil aprueba las sanciones en el CSONU, se habrá desdicho de su rechazo a las mismas; si vota en contra, lo hará en compañía, en el mejor de los casos, solo de Turquía y Líbano. Y si se abstiene, confirmará lo que muchos hemos reiterado: Lula quiere jugar en primera división, pero sin mojarse.

He aquí el quid del asunto. En realidad, Brasil ha logrado poco en el ámbito internacional, más allá de titulares. El objetivo diplomático número uno de Lula -lograr un escaño permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad- se ve, al término de ocho años de esfuerzos, menos viable que nunca. La aventura en Honduras resultó en una tragicomedia tropical: Brasil no pudo restituir a su asilado huésped Manuel Zelaya, este permaneció varios meses en la Embajada brasileña, y hoy Itamaratí solo puede chantajear a españoles y mexicanos con su ausencia en caso de cualquier invitación o reconocimiento al nuevo presidente hondureño. La reanudación de la Ronda de Doha sigue indefinidamente pospuesta, Copenhague no resultó y Cancún no promete, e incluso las diversas iniciativas regionales presentadas por Brasil de la mano con Hugo Chávez se hallan estancadas.

Ello se debe a una debilidad intrínseca del esquema. El tamaño de una economía (Japón) o de una demografía (India) no otorga ipso facto el estatuto de actor mundial. Más bien es la toma de partido, los valores impulsados y la eficacia a escala regional lo que, en su conjunto, pueden (o no) convertirse en una catapulta al estrellato internacional. Brasil linda con nueve países, y todos ellos padecen serios conflictos internos (Colombia, Bolivia, Venezuela) o con sus vecinos (Argentina con Uruguay, Colombia con Venezuela y Ecuador, Perú con Ecuador y con Chile, Bolivia con Chile). Pero Lula en ese pantano no ha querido incursionar: mantiene una prudente pasividad antiintervencionista, o un franco respaldo a las posiciones bolivarianas de Chávez, Correa, Morales, Daniel Ortega en Nicaragua y los hermanos Castro en La Habana. Se resiste a impulsar valores, a tomar partido, o a buscar resultados concretos en su propio terreno.

Tal vez resulte más fácil mediar entre Teherán y Washington (aunque nadie lo ha logrado desde 1979) que entre Caracas y Bogotá, o entre Buenos Aires y Montevideo. A pesar de su patente irritación, quizás Barack Obama y Hillary Clinton prefieran darle el beneficio de la duda al proyecto turco-brasileño antes que ceder a la impaciencia de Israel y de Francia. Lula puede salir airoso de su lance en las planicies persas o acabar mal con todos. Posiblemente debiera haberse mostrado satisfecho con las portadas de las revistas, sin buscar en exceso llenarlas de contenido. Suele ser más difícil.

Jorge Castañeda, ex secretario de Relaciones Exteriores de México, es profesor de Estudios Latinoamericanos en la Universidad de Nueva York.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Ensinando o ódio by DEMÉTRIO MAGNOLI


O Estado de S.Paulo - 13/05/10

"Uma certa miopia social pode ser mais produtiva politicamente do que
um olho perfeitamente são." A frase, do ex-diretor da Capes Renato
Janine Ribeiro, conclui uma comunicação acadêmica consagrada às
políticas de identidades - ou seja, no caso do Brasil, especialmente
às políticas de preferências raciais. O cerne do texto encontra-se na
ideia de que "uma estratégia política das diferenças (...) pode
sustentar uma tática política da desigualdade, num sentido fortemente
compensatório - isto é, de que para chegarmos à igualdade será preciso
passarmos pela desigualdade".

Renato Janine é um pensador íntegro, não um panfletário rancoroso. Seu
texto, pontilhado de dúvidas e perplexidade, é algo como uma renúncia
à utopia marxista organizada em torno da luta de classes. No lugar do
fracassado programa revolucionário, seria a hora de aceitar a "miopia"
mais "produtiva" das políticas diferencialistas, que descortina o
cenário de uma sociedade constituída por segmentos identitários:
afro-brasileiros, europeus étnicos, indígenas, quilombolas...

O marxismo, a ditadura do proletariado e o totalitarismo stalinista,
que não são idênticos uns aos outros, certamente formam galhos da
vasta árvore iluminista nascida à sombra do estandarte da igualdade.
Mas, ao contrário do que parece sugerir Renato Janine, a árvore tem
muitos galhos saudáveis. Fora da esfera soviética, as lutas sociais
romperam o círculo de ferro do liberalismo elitista. O voto feminino,
a educação e a saúde públicas, os sistemas de previdência social
atestam a "produtividade" de um credo assentado sobre o princípio da
igualdade política dos cidadãos. Por que motivo deve ser abandonada a
obra infinita, ainda tão precária entre nós? Como se justifica a sua
substituição por uma estratégia que fragmenta o povo em segmentos
circundados pelas muralhas das "identidades"?

De acordo com Renato Janine, a luta de classes tenderia à guerra de
extermínio, enquanto a "política das diferenças" se orienta pela meta
do "reconhecimento do outro". A primeira assertiva é desmentida por
cem anos de lutas trabalhistas nas democracias "burguesas". A segunda,
por genocídios colossais ou pequenos massacres cotidianos que, da
Alemanha nazista à Ruanda hutu e da Índia das castas à Nigéria das
etnias oficiais, formam um plantel de experiências históricas sobre a
dinâmica das políticas identitárias. As pessoas mudam de ideia, de
partido, de estrato de renda e de classe social, mas não podem mudar
de "raça" ou "etnia". Eis o motivo pelo qual as Constituições
democráticas rejeitam a classificação oficial dos cidadãos segundo o
critério do sangue.

"Nós tivemos de ensinar o povo a odiar os sulistas, a enxergá-los como
pessoas que expropriavam os seus direitos", explicou um líder dos
hauçás da Nigéria setentrional, referindo-se ao sistema de
preferências étnicas inscrito nas leis do país. A "estratégia política
das diferenças" é uma pedagogia do ódio destinada a construir
comunidades identitárias coesas. No Brasil, percorremos a etapa
inicial dessa trajetória pedagógica. Como em tantos outros lugares,
tenta-se ensinar o ódio primordialmente na escola. A missão, conduzida
pelo MEC, tem como alvos as crianças e os jovens das escolas públicas.

A palavra "revanche" encontrou sentido positivo na resolução do MEC,
de junho de 2004, que regulamenta as Diretrizes para a Educação das
Relações Étnico-Raciais e para o Ensino de História e Cultura
Afro-Brasileira e Africana. Nela o Brasil é descrito como um país
binacional no qual "convivem (...) de maneira tensa, a cultura e o
padrão estético negro e africano e um padrão estético e cultural
branco europeu". Neste país partido em dois, "não é fácil ser
descendente de seres humanos escravizados", mas também é difícil
"descobrir-se descendente dos escravizadores" e "temer, embora
veladamente, a revanche dos que, por cinco séculos, têm sido
desprezados e massacrados". Qual será a opinião de Renato Janine sobre
tais passagens, convertidas em ato legal por Tarso Genro e
referendadas por Fernando Haddad?

A pedagogia do ódio é também a da falsificação da História. A
resolução, que manda celebrar o 20 de novembro como Dia da Consciência
Negra, não traz palavra alguma sobre o movimento popular
abolicionista, definindo o 13 de maio como "o dia de denúncia das
repercussões das políticas de eliminação física e simbólica da
população afro-brasileira no pós-abolição". No dia de hoje, se os
professores seguirem as diretrizes do MEC, nenhum estudante ouvirá os
nomes de Joaquim Nabuco, José do Patrocínio, Antônio Bento e Luís Gama
ou conhecerá os feitos de incontáveis anônimos, de todas as cores e
classes sociais, que derrotaram a escravidão e derrubaram os pilares
do Império. Por outro lado, serão apresentados a nada menos que um
genocídio racial, evento que clamaria pela "revanche".

As palavras da resolução têm consequências cotidianas. Nas escolas
públicas, o MEC distribui livros didáticos dedicados a dividir os
jovens estudantes em "brancos" ("descendentes dos escravizadores") e
"negros" ("os que, por cinco séculos, têm sido desprezados e
massacrados"), enquanto suas comissões de seleção aplicam as diretivas
oficiais para excluir as obras que não retratam o Brasil como o país
binacional inventado por "uma certa miopia social". Uma gosma de
doutrinação racial escorre para dentro das salas de aula,
emporcalhando todo o sistema de ensino.

As pessoas aprendem a odiar. O ódio racial é um substituto míope, mas
fácil, para a complexa, nuançada reflexão política sobre nossas ruínas
sociais. Renato Janine não deixaria de comparecer ao simpósio
promovido pela Capes e pela British Academy no qual fez o elogio da
miopia. Estará ele presente quando jovens colegas de escolas públicas
atirarem pedras uns nos outros porque os tons da pele separam seus
destinos no umbral da universidade?

SOCIÓLOGO E DOUTOR EM GEOGRAFIA HUMANA PELA USP

Monday, May 10, 2010

Câmbio mata Rubens Ricupero FOLHA DE S. PAULO

Parecem estar contados os dias de saldo comercial; é bom apertar os
cintos para o mergulho na montanha-russa

O CÂMBIO já está estrangulando o setor de maior tecnologia e valor
agregado de nossa indústria (eletrônica, farmacêutica, química,
automobilística e maquinaria). Apenas nos três primeiros meses do ano
esse setor teve o chocante deficit de US$ 13,6 bilhões, maior do que
em todo o ano de 2006 e superior em 42% ao do mesmo período do ano
passado.

Os dados do Iedi (Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento
Industrial) servem de necrológio à indústria brasileira, mostrando que
o câmbio continua sendo tão mortal como no tempo da advertência de
Mário Henrique Simonsen. A tendência está colada à apreciação do real
e ao declínio do saldo comercial em geral, que em abril foi o menor em
oito anos, tendo caído nada menos que 65% em comparação ao de abril de
2009.

Aliás, parecem estar contados os dias de saldo comercial, uma vez que
as importações estão crescendo em ritmo quase duas vezes maior do que
as exportações (65% ante 23%).

É bom apertar os cintos para o mergulho na montanha-russa, já que o
fim do saldo comercial elimina o único fator que compensava em parte o
aumento vertiginoso de todos os demais componentes do deficit em
conta-corrente.

Essa é a cara oculta da atual euforia com o crescimento puxado somente
pelo consumo do governo e das pessoas, com baixa poupança e pouco
investimento. Cada vez se depende mais de recursos de fora para cobrir
o buraco, e a desindustrialização precoce entra no segundo estágio de
agravamento. No primeiro, as importações substituem os componentes
locais, mas o produto continua a ser montado no Brasil; no segundo,
importa-se o produto pronto e as indústrias se tornam meras
distribuidoras e prestadoras de assistência.

A situação tende a piorar com as elevações de juro que o Banco Central
terá de realizar para segurar o superaquecimento do consumo. As
previsões de que no fim do ano o dólar se aproxime de R$ 1,60 ou menos
vão sacrificar ainda mais os manufaturados. Até agora a valorização
dos primários pela demanda da China tem atenuado a deterioração do
comércio exterior. É um erro, porém, imaginar que as commodities
aguentam qualquer valorização da moeda.

Tenho idade bastante para me lembrar do tempo em que quase todos os
produtos primários brasileiros eram gravosos, isto é, seu custo de
produção superava, devido ao câmbio, o preço internacional.

Quando as cotações também caem, como sucede no momento com muitos
produtos agrícolas, a renda do campo sofre duplo golpe: preço e
câmbio.

De onde poderá vir o socorro às contas externas se o panorama negativo
se acentuar, como vem acontecendo há anos? Do petróleo? É o que já
ocorre, como mostra Raquel Landim em perceptivo comentário em "O
Estado de S. Paulo" (4/5/10).

Nele se aprende que o petróleo passou a ser o principal item das
exportações, quase 10% do total! Sem ele, as vendas externas cresceram
apenas 16%, agravando o descompasso com o aumento das importações.

Está aí um bom tema para o debate eleitoral. Em vez da discussão
pueril sobre qual governo foi melhor, por que não debater como evitar
que o Brasil vire uma grande Venezuela, onde 96% das exportações vêm
das commodities? Sem mexer no câmbio, como melhorar a competitividade?
Com esses juros? Com a infraestrutura em pedaços? Com carga tributária
o dobro da da China? Com a redução da semana de trabalho?

Saturday, May 08, 2010

Friday, March 19, 2010

Quem passou pela vida em branca nuvem
E em plácido repouso adormeceu
Quem não sentiu o frio da desgraça,
Quem passou pela vida e não sofreu...
Foi espectro de homem, não foi homem,
Só passou pela vida e não viveu...
Francisco Otaviano

Sunday, March 07, 2010

The Inflationist View of History - Ludwig von Mises - Mises Institute

The Inflationist View of History

Mises Daily: Friday, March 05, 2010 by Ludwig von Mises

[This article is excerpted from chapter 17 of Human Action: The Scholar's Edition and is read by Jeff Riggenbach.]
Montgolfier brothers' hot-air balloon, Paris 1783

A very popular doctrine maintains that progressive lowering of the monetary unit's purchasing power played a decisive role in historical evolution. It is asserted that mankind would not have reached its present state of well-being if the supply of money had not increased to a greater extent than the demand for money. The resulting fall in purchasing power, it is said, was a necessary condition of economic progress. The intensification of the division of labor and the continuous growth of capital accumulation, which have centupled the productivity of labor, could ensue only in a world of progressive price rises. Inflation creates prosperity and wealth; deflation distress and economic decay.[1] A survey of political literature and of the ideas that guided for centuries the monetary and credit policies of the nations reveals that this opinion is almost generally accepted. In spite of all warnings on the part of economists it is still today the core of the layman's economic philosophy. It is no less the essence of the teachings of Lord Keynes and his disciples in both hemispheres.

The popularity of inflationism is in great part due to deep-rooted hatred of creditors. Inflation is considered just because it favors debtors at the expense of creditors. However, the inflationist view of history which we have to deal with in this section is only loosely related to this anticreditor argument. Its assertion that "expansionism" is the driving force of economic progress and that "restrictionism" is the worst of all evils is mainly based on other arguments.

It is obvious that the problems raised by the inflationist doctrine cannot be solved by a recourse to the teachings of historical experience. It is beyond doubt that the history of prices shows, by and large, a continuous, although sometimes for short periods interrupted, upward trend. It is of course impossible to establish this fact otherwise than by historical understanding. Catallactic precision cannot be applied to historical problems. The endeavors of some historians and statisticians to trace back the changes in the purchasing power of the precious metals for centuries, and to measure them, are futile. It has been shown already that all attempts to measure economic magnitudes are based on entirely fallacious assumptions and display ignorance of the fundamental principles both of economics and of history. But what history by means of its specific methods can tell us in this field is enough to justify the assertion that the purchasing power of money has for centuries shown a tendency to fall. With regard to this point all people agree.

But this is not the problem to be elucidated. The question is whether the fall in purchasing power was or was not an indispensable factor in the evolution which led from the poverty of ages gone by to the more satisfactory conditions of modern Western capitalism. This question must be answered without reference to the historical experience, which can be and always is interpreted in different ways, and to which supporters and adversaries of every theory and of every explanation of history refer as a proof of their mutually contradictory and incompatible statements. What is needed is a clarification of the effects of changes in purchasing power on the division of labor, the accumulation of capital, and technological improvement.

In dealing with this problem one cannot satisfy oneself with the refutation of the arguments advanced by the inflationists in support of their thesis. The absurdity of these arguments is so manifest that their refutation and exposure is easy indeed. From its very beginnings economics has shown again and again that assertions concerning the alleged blessings of an abundance of money and the alleged disasters of a scarcity of money are the outcome of crass errors in reasoning. The endeavors of the apostles of inflationism and expansionism to refute the correctness of the economists' teachings have failed utterly.

$20 $16
Murphy's Guide to Mises

The only relevant question is this: Is it possible or not to lower the rate of interest lastingly by means of credit expansion? This problem will be treated exhaustively in the chapter dealing with the interconnection between the money relation and the rate of interest. There it will be shown what the consequences of booms created by credit expansion must be.

But we must ask ourselves at this point of our inquiries whether it is not possible that there are other reasons that could be advanced in favor of the inflationary interpretation of history. Is it not possible that the champions of inflationism have neglected to resort to some valid arguments that could support their stand? It is certainly necessary to approach the issue from every possible avenue.

Let us think of a world in which the quantity of money is rigid. At an early stage of history the inhabitants of this world have produced the whole quantity of the commodity employed for the monetary service which can possibly be produced. A further increase in the quantity of money is out of the question. Fiduciary media are unknown. All money-substitutes — the subsidiary coins included — are money-certificates.

On these assumptions the intensification of the division of labor, the evolution from the economic self-sufficiency of households, villages, districts, and countries to the world-embracing market system of the 19th century, the progressive accumulation of capital, and the improvement of technological methods of production would have resulted in a continuous trend toward falling prices. Would such a rise in the purchasing power of the monetary unit have stopped the evolution of capitalism?

The average businessman will answer this question in the affirmative. Living and acting in an environment in which a slow but continuous fall in the monetary unit's purchasing power is deemed normal, necessary, and beneficial, he simply cannot comprehend a different state of affairs. He associates the notions of rising prices and profits on the one hand and of falling prices and losses on the other. The fact that there are bear operations too and that great fortunes have been made by bears does not shake his dogmatism. These are, he says, merely speculative transactions of people eager to profit from the fall in the prices of goods already produced and available. Creative innovations, new investments, and the application of improved technological methods require the inducement brought about by the expectation of price rises. Economic progress is possible only in a world of rising prices.

This opinion is untenable. In a world of a rising purchasing power for the monetary unit everybody's mode of thinking would have adjusted itself to this state of affairs, just as in our actual world it has adjusted itself to a falling purchasing power of the monetary unit. Today everybody is prepared to consider a rise in his nominal or monetary income as an improvement of his material well-being. People's attention is directed more toward the rise in nominal wage rates and the money equivalent of wealth than to the increase in the supply of commodities. In a world of rising purchasing power for the monetary unit they would concern themselves more with the fall in living costs. This would bring into clearer relief the fact that economic progress consists primarily in making the amenities of life more easily accessible.

In the conduct of business, reflections concerning the secular trend of prices do not play any role whatever. Entrepreneurs and investors do not bother about secular trends. What guides their actions is their opinion about the movement of prices in the coming weeks, months, or at most years. They do not heed the general movement of all prices. What matters for them is the existence of discrepancies between the prices of the complementary factors of production and the anticipated prices of the products. No businessman embarks upon a definite production project because he believes that the prices, i.e., the prices of all goods and services, will rise. He engages himself if he believes that he can profit from a difference between the prices of goods of various orders. In a world with a secular tendency toward falling prices, such opportunities for earning profit will appear in the same way in which they appear in a world with a secular trend toward rising prices. The expectation of a general progressive upward movement of all prices does not bring about intensified production and improvement in well-being. It results in the "flight to real values," in the crack-up boom and the complete breakdown of the monetary system.

If the opinion that the prices of all commodities will drop becomes general, the short-term market rate of interest is lowered by the amount of the negative price premium.[2] Thus the entrepreneur employing borrowed funds is secured against the consequences of such a drop in prices to the same extent to which, under conditions of rising prices, the lender is secured through the price premium against the consequences of falling purchasing power.

A secular tendency toward a rise in the monetary unit's purchasing power would require rules of thumb on the part of businessmen and investors other than those developed under the secular tendency toward a fall in its purchasing power. But it would certainly not influence substantially the course of economic affairs. It would not remove the urge of people to improve their material well-being as far as possible by an appropriate arrangement of production. It would not deprive the economic system of the factors making for material improvement, namely, the striving of enterprising promoters after profit and the readiness of the public to buy those commodities that are apt to provide them the greatest satisfaction at the lowest costs.

Such observations are certainly not a plea for a policy of deflation. They imply merely a refutation of the ineradicable inflationist fables. They unmask the illusiveness of Lord Keynes's doctrine that the source of poverty and distress, of depression of trade, and of unemployment is to be seen in a "contractionist pressure." It is not true that "a deflationary pressure … would have … prevented the development of modern industry." It is not true that credit expansion brings about the "miracle … of turning a stone into bread."[3]

Economics recommends neither inflationary nor deflationary policy. It does not urge the governments to tamper with the market's choice of a medium of exchange. It establishes only the following truths:

1.

By committing itself to an inflationary or deflationary policy a government does not promote the public welfare, the commonweal, or the interests of the whole nation. It merely favors one or several groups of the population at the expense of other groups.
2.

It is impossible to know in advance which group will be favored by a definite inflationary or deflationary measure and to what extent. These effects depend on the whole complex of the market data involved. They also depend largely on the speed of the inflationary or deflationary movements and may be completely reversed with the progress of these movements.
3.

At any rate, an expansion results in misinvestment of capital and overconsumption. It leaves the nation as a whole poorer, not richer.
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4.

Continued inflation must finally end in the crack-up boom, the complete breakdown of the currency system.
5.

Deflationary policy is costly for the treasury and unpopular with the masses. But inflationary policy is a boon for the treasury and very popular with the ignorant. Practically, the danger of deflation is but slight and the danger of inflation tremendous

A decepcionante visita de Lula by MARIO VARGAS LLOSA

O ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - 07/03/2010


Minha capacidade de indignação política atenua-se um pouco nos meses do ano que passo na Europa. Suponho que a razão disso seja o fato de que, lá, vivo em países democráticos nos quais, independentemente dos problemas de que padecem, há uma ampla margem de liberdade para a crítica, e a imprensa, os partidos, as instituições e os indivíduos costumam protestar de maneira íntegra e com estardalhaço quando ocorrem episódios ultrajantes e desprezíveis, principalmente no campo político.

Entretanto, na América Latina, onde costumo passar de três a quatro meses ao ano, esta capacidade de indignação volta sempre, com a fúria da minha juventude, e me faz viver sempre temeroso, alerta, desassossegado, esperando (e perguntando-me de onde virá desta vez) o fato execrável que, provavelmente, passará despercebido para a maioria, ou merecerá o beneplácito ou a indiferença geral.

Na semana passada, experimentei mais uma vez esta sensação de asco e de ira, ao ver o risonho presidente Lula do Brasil abraçando carinhosamente Fidel e Raúl Castro, no mesmo momento em que os esbirros da ditadura cubana perseguiam os dissidentes e os sepultavam nos calabouços para impedir que assistissem ao enterro de Orlando Zapata Tamayo, o pedreiro pacifista da oposição, de 42 anos, pertencente ao Grupo dos 75, que os algozes castristas deixaram morrer de inanição - depois de submetê-lo em vida a confinamento, torturas e condená-lo com pretextos a mais de 30 anos de cárcere - depois de 85 dias de greve de fome.

Qualquer pessoa que não tenha perdido a decência e tenha um mínimo de informação sobre o que acontece em Cuba espera do regime castrista que aja como sempre fez. Há uma absoluta coerência entre a condição de ditadura totalitária de Cuba e uma política terrorista de perseguição a toda forma de dissidência e de crítica, a violação sistemática dos mais elementares direitos humanos, de falsos processos para sepultar os opositores em prisões imundas e submetê-los a vexames até enlouquecê-los, matá-los ou impeli-los ao suicídio. Os irmãos Castro exercem há 51 anos esta política, e somente os idiotas poderiam esperar deles um comportamento diferente.

DESCARAMENTO

Mas de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, governante eleito em eleições legítimas, presidente constitucional de um país democrático como o Brasil, seria de esperar, pelo menos, uma atitude um pouco mais digna e coerente com a cultura democrática que teoricamente ele representa, e não o descaramento indecente de exibir-se, risonho e cúmplice, com os assassinos virtuais de um dissidente democrático, legitimando com sua presença e seu proceder a caçada de opositores desencadeada pelo regime no mesmo instante em que ele era fotografado abraçando os algozes de Zapata.

O presidente Lula sabia perfeitamente o que estava fazendo. Antes de viajar para Cuba, 50 dissidentes lhe haviam pedido uma audiência durante sua estadia em Havana para que intercedesse perante as autoridades da ilha pela libertação dos presos políticos martirizados, como Zapata, nos calabouços cubanos. Ele se negou a ambas as coisas.

Não os recebeu nem defendeu sua causa em suas duas visitas anteriores à ilha, cujo regime liberticida sempre elogiou sem o menor eufemismo.

Além disso, este comportamento do presidente brasileiro caracterizou todo o seu mandato. Há anos que, em sua política exterior, ele desmente de maneira sistemática sua política interna, na qual respeita as regras do estado de direito, e, em matéria econômica, em vez das receitas marxistas que propunha quando era sindicalista e candidato - dirigismo econômico, estatizações, repúdio dos investimentos estrangeiros, etc. -, promove uma economia de mercado e da livre iniciativa como qualquer estadista social-democrata europeu.

Mas, quando se trata do exterior, o presidente Lula se despe de suas vestimentas democráticas e abraça o comandante Chávez, Evo Morales, o comandante Ortega, ou seja, com a escória da América Latina, e não tem o menor escrúpulo em abrir as portas diplomáticas e econômicas do Brasil aos sátrapas teocráticos integristas do Irã.

O que significa esta duplicidade? Que Lula nunca mudou de verdade? Que é um simples mascarado, capaz de todas as piruetas ideológicas, um político medíocre sem espinha dorsal cívica e moral? Segundo alguns, os desígnios geopolíticos para o Brasil do presidente Lula estão acima de questiúnculas como Cuba, ou a Coreia do Norte, uma das ditaduras onde se cometem as piores violações dos direitos humanos e onde há mais presos políticos.

O importante para ele são coisas mais transcendentes como o Porto de Mariel, que o Brasil está financiando com US$ 300 milhões, ou a próxima construção pela Petrobrás de uma fábrica de lubrificantes em Havana. Diante de realizações deste porte, o que poderia importar ao "estadista" brasileiro que um pedreiro cubano qualquer, e ainda por cima negro e pobre, morresse de fome clamando por ninharias como a liberdade? Na verdade, tudo isto significa, infelizmente, que Lula é um típico mandatário "democrático" latino-americano.

Quase todos eles são do mesmo feitio, e quase todos, uns mais, outros menos, embora - quando não têm mais remédio - praticam a democracia no seio dos seus próprios países, mas, no exterior, não têm nenhuma vergonha, como Lula, em cortejar ditadores e demagogos, porque acham, coitados, que desta maneira os tapinhas amistosos lhes proporcionarão uma credencial de "progressistas" que os livrará de greves, revoluções e de campanhas internacionais acusando-os de violar os direitos humanos.

Como lembra o analista peruano Fernando Rospigliosi, em um artigo admirável: "Enquanto Zapata morria lentamente, os presidentes da América Latina - entre eles o algoz cubano - reuniam-se no México para criar uma organização (mais uma!) regional. Nem uma palavra saiu dali para exigir a liberdade ou um melhor tratamento para os mais de 200 presos políticos cubanos." O único que se atreveu a protestar - um justo entre os fariseus - foi o presidente eleito do Chile, Sebastián Piñera.

De modo que a cara de qualquer um destes chefes de Estado poderia substituir a de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, abraçando os irmãos Castro, na foto que me revoltou o estômago ao ver os jornais da manhã.

Estas caras não representam a liberdade, a limpeza moral, o civismo, a legalidade e a coerência na América Latina. Estes valores estão encarnados em pessoas como Orlando Zapata Tamayo, nas Damas de Branco, Oswaldo Payá, Elizardo Sánchez, a blogueira Yoani Sánchez, e em outros cubanos e cubanas que, sem se deixarem intimidar pelas pressões, as agressões e humilhações cotidianas de que são vítimas, continuam enfrentando a tirania castrista. E se encarnam ainda, em primeiro lugar, nas centenas de prisioneiros políticos e, sobretudo, no jornalista independente Guillermo Fariñas, que, enquanto escrevo este artigo, há oito dias está em greve de fome em Cuba para protestar pela morte de Zapata e exigir a libertação dos presos políticos.

O curioso e terrível paradoxo é que no interior de um dos mais desumanos e cruéis regimes que o continente conheceu se encontrem hoje os mais dignos e respeitáveis políticos da América Latina